Indeed, over the past year, House GOP centrists have won surprising victories in a chamber that for the past decade has been dominated by the conservative wing of the party. Their accomplishments last year include getting their leadership to acquiesce to scrapping controversial Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling language from a crucial budget bill and, perhaps most stunningly, a vote in favor of more embryonic stem-cell research.  

This year, moderates in both chambers anticipate being big players again during the March and April budget battles as well as in efforts to impose stricter ethics rules on lobbyists and Members of Congress, to name but two.  

"Their approach, because it is moderate, can help the party recover from some of the losses [and] scandals," said Antonia Ferrier, spokeswoman for Senate Centrist Coalition Co-chairwoman Olympia Snowe (R-Maine). "When the poll numbers [for the president and Congress] are so bad ... it provides the ability for us to step in and take a much more prominent role."  

While Senate GOP centrists have long been able to influence key pieces of legislation under Senate rules that empower minority factions, Rep. Mike Castle (Del.), a prominent member of the Tuesday Group, a coalition of House GOP centrists, said that House moderates' newfound power has come from an unusual confluence of events.

Arguably one of the biggest factors had to do with the ethical and legal problems of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), whose decision to step down from the No. 2 leadership position removed the chamber's most feared enforcer of party loyalty.  

DeLay's departure, combined with the rise of acting Majority Leader Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Chief Deputy Majority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), contributed significantly to the moderates' ability to influence the legislative agenda.  

"Frankly, some of the ethical issues out there have been of some help" in strengthening the moderates' hand, Castle said.  

Castle said that during last year's budget battles, "There was a real feeling that somebody was listening to us. Before, it was, 'Vote our way or face the punishment.'"

 A good example came when moderates pushed for more federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research. Anti-abortion conservatives have consistently opposed such research because they say it results in the unnecessary destruction of human embryos. But with the votes of a majority of Democrats, centrist Republicans were able to pass the bill out of the House last year.

 Centrists largely credit Blunt, Cantor and even Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) with calling DeLay off a plan to whip up opposition to the stem-cell bill. From the beginning, when the GOP leadership agreed to hold a vote on the bill, the leaders pledged not to interfere.  

Similarly, moderates felt that Blunt, as acting Majority Leader, was more conciliatory toward them when they threatened to vote down the budget reconciliation bill if it included a controversial provision allowing oil and natural gas drilling in ANWR.  

"DeLay clearly had a very hard-nosed, conservative approach to legislation," Castle said. "I think the fact that Roy Blunt is a listener is a plus."

 An aide to a House GOP moderate acknowledged that the void in leadership has played an important role in the rise of House Republican moderates, but noted that moderates also deserve credit for being "more organized" and not trying "to take on too much" in their efforts to affect legislation.  

Indeed, moderates chiefly confined their battles to the stem-cell debate and the budget reconciliation bill, which involved issues such as ANWR, food stamps, Medicaid, child support enforcement, welfare law and other proposed cuts to social services.  

GOP centrists also credit the heightened degree of unity among House Democrats on tough votes with increasing their influence, particularly on the budget reconciliation vote. Without centrist Democrats to win over, the GOP leadership had to pay closer attention than ever to moderate Republicans.

"With the Democrats voting as a bloc" against the GOP leadership, Castle said, "that gave us an important ability to negotiate what we wanted in legislation."

 In the fight over oil drilling, a cadre of House Republican moderates were able to scuttle plans to open ANWR. On that issue, there historically has been more than enough bipartisan support in the House for opening the refuge to drilling. In years past, Senate GOP centrists were often the last line of defense against the ANWR plan, but recent Republican gains in that chamber gave Senate leaders enough votes to pass the measure under the reconciliation process, which is protected from filibuster.

 Similarly, House and Senate leaders' need for centrist votes also caused them to eliminate or scale back some of the cuts to social services contained in the budget measure.  

Those victories have only made it more likely that moderates will try to flex their muscles again this year, particularly as they face re-election in tough swing districts and states. A decline in Bush's poll numbers last year also has made moderates more willing to resist White House entreaties, several GOP centrist sources acknowledged.

 "We're doing what we have to do to get re-elected," said Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, Executive Director of  the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of House and Senate moderates.

Chamberlain Resnick noted that bribery and lobbying scandals surrounding several Republican Members threaten to taint the entire party in the minds of the electorate.  

"A lot of that will be used against us because we are Republicans," she said. "You can't allow Democrats to use all the bad news about Republicans ... against you."

 As a result, moderate Republicans will continue to map voting strategies that may be substantially different from what the president or House GOP leaders are pushing.

 "On virtually every issue, moderates are going to be asking themselves, 'Should I be for this issue or not?'" Castle said.

 Unlike their House counterparts, the power wielded by Senate GOP centrists has not changed much over the past year.

 "I don't see any more teeth behind their bark. It's just a loud bark," said one senior Senate GOP aide.

However, the handful of moderates in that chamber still have had a big hand in limiting the conservative bent of legislation coming out of the Senate, and several of them joined together with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and centrist Democrats in early 2005 to form the "Gang of 14" that prevented Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) from ending the minority's ability to filibuster judicial nominations.  

"It's still developing - the strength of the moderates," said Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.). "We have opportunities to stick together, but different issues pull us in different directions. I'm always skeptical of our ability to stay cohesive."

But as in the past, centrists in both chambers expect to come together this year on budget issues and are holding out the possibility that they'll be even more reluctant to support deep cuts to social services.

 The aide to a House Republican moderate said that House centrists can be expected join conservatives in reviving attempts to give rank-and-file Members added power to oppose "pork barrel" projects in appropriations bills. A similar effort failed last year.

 Ferrier noted that Snowe and other GOP centrists would likely push for some changes to the Medicare prescription drug program, which got off to a rocky start at the beginning of this year.

 Ferrier also predicted that "there are going to be more fissures in the party on the amount of authority" for the president, given recent questions over the president's decision to circumvent the courts in ordering the National Security Agency to spy on Americans suspected of ties to overseas terrorists.