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From
National Journal
February 24, 2006 |
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SPECIAL
REPORT: 2005 VOTE RATINGS
Down The
Middle
By
Richard E. Cohen,
National Journal
National Journal Group Inc.
Last year was a special time
for veteran Rep. Sherwood
Boehlert, a Republican from
upstate New York. "It was
the moderates' moment,"
Boehlert reflected in an
interview looking back on
2005. He was referring to
how a group of 15 to 20
centrist House Republicans,
mostly from the Northeast
and Midwest, had leveraged
their independence to shape
the outcome on hot
legislative topics that
included federal budget
belt-tightening, oil
drilling in Alaska, and
funding for stem-cell
research.
Boehlert recounted the
grueling battle over the
budget reconciliation bill,
which the House first passed
217-215 on November 18 at
about 1:30 a.m. Right up
until they cast their votes,
he and Rep. Michael Castle,
R-Del., withheld their
support and continued
extended negotiations with
Speaker Dennis Hastert,
R-Ill., and Majority Whip
Roy Blunt, R-Mo. "We upped
our requests -- almost to
demands -- on several
issues, including spending
for [low-income home-heating
assistance], food stamps,
and milk support," Boehlert
recalled. "Finally, we got
commitments from the
speaker, whose words were
bankable."
Capitol Hill is in the blood
of the savvy Boehlert, 69,
who began working as a House
staffer in 1964 and, except
for a brief period, has
remained there ever since.
He was first elected to the
House in 1982, and for the
past five years has chaired
the Science Committee. Even
Boehlert doesn't know
whether the budget bill
would have passed without
his and Castle's votes, but
embattled GOP leaders
evidently were unwilling to
risk it. "The big difference
last year," Castle said in a
separate interview, "was
that the leadership became
more willing to listen to us
and to make concessions than
they were in the past."
In both the
House and the
Senate last
year, Republican
centrists found
themselves
exercising
newfound
influence and
creating plenty
of headaches for
President Bush
and GOP leaders.
The Republican
centrists were
bolder -- and
more effective
-- than perhaps
at any other
time since their
party's takeover
of Capitol Hill
in 1994.
As part of
budget
reconciliation,
Republican
centrists were
able to ease the
proposed
entitlement
cuts, such as to
Medicaid, and
they forced
Republican
leaders to drop
a provision
authorizing oil
drilling in
Alaska's
Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge.
The opposition
of moderate Sen.
Olympia Snowe,
R-Maine, forced
Senate
Republicans to
scale back their
tax-cut
reconciliation
measure by
eliminating
extensions of
the
capital-gains
and dividends
tax breaks. And
seven centrist
Republicans were
among the
Senate's "Gang
of 14" that
forged an
11th-hour
compromise that
torpedoed plans
by Majority
Leader Bill
Frist, R-Tenn.,
to ban
filibusters
against judicial
nominations,
although their
deal did clear
the way for the
approval of
several of
Bush's stalled
nominees.
Just before
Christmas, four
independent GOP
senators
unexpectedly
scuttled a
conference
agreement on
legislation
reauthorizing
the
USA PATRIOT Act.
"We showed that
we were willing
to take a stand
and advocate,"
said Sen.
John Sununu,
R-N.H., a leader
of that group.
The foursome --
which also
included Sens.
Larry Craig,
R-Idaho,
Chuck Hagel,
R-Neb., and
Lisa Murkowski,
R-Alaska --
finally reached
a deal with the
White House on
February 9.
The revenge of
the Republican
moderates hardly
seemed to be in
the cards as
legislative
insiders planned
the 109th
Congress in
January 2005.
Bush and GOP
leaders were
full of swagger
after their
November 2004
electoral
victories, and
they placed
Social Security
reform atop a
bold second-term
agenda. The
Republican
pickup of four
seats in the
Senate and three
in the House
seemed to
strengthen
conservatives,
not least
because those
gains came
mostly in the
South.
One might
have expected
GOP moderates to
cave to pressure
from their
leaders to vote
the party line.
But as 2005
played out,
Republicans
watched their
poll numbers
nosedive, thanks
to their party's
handling of the
Iraq war,
Hurricane
Katrina, gas
prices, Social
Security, and
other domestic
issues -- on top
of the
indictments and
criminal
investigations
facing Rep. Tom
DeLay, R-Texas,
and several
other GOP
lawmakers and
Bush
administration
officials. And
in the November
2005 election,
Democrats won
gubernatorial
races in
Virginia and New
Jersey. Amid all
of these
troubles, the
Republican
centrists became
more emboldened
to push back.
At
the
same
time,
weakened
Republican
leaders,
particularly
those
in
the
House,
could
no
longer
count
on
conservative
Democrats
--
whose
numbers
had
dwindled
in
recent
elections
--
to
supply
the
votes
to
pass
controversial
GOP
legislation.
As
partisan
acrimony
increased
in
2005,
House
Democrats
frequently
voted
in a
bloc,
united
against
the
Republican
agenda.
And
this
unity
made
the
votes
of
GOP
moderates
all
the
more
critical.
"We
were
empowered
by
the
Democrats'
decision
to
march
in
lockstep
on
many
issues,"
Boehlert
said.
"The
Republican
leadership
was
faced
with
the
necessity
to
get
a
majority
of
the
House
from
within
the
majority
party.
That
was
impossible
to
do
without
the
moderates."
Conservatives
responded
to
their
party's
mounting
woes
last
year
by
demanding
a
shift
to
the
right
and
a
return
to
bedrock
conservative
principles.
Yet
nervous
moderate
Republicans
from
swing
states
and
districts
increasingly
felt
they
needed
to
look
after
their
own
political
interests
and
constituencies.
"In
the
past
year,
we
saw
a
growing
organization
of
Republican
centrists,"
said
Rep.
Mark
Kirk,
R-Ill.,
who
co-chairs
the
Tuesday
Group,
a
core
organization
of
House
GOP
moderates.
"Where
we
felt
strongly,
we
definitely
got
what
we
wanted."
But
it
wasn't
only
the
traditional
Republican
moderates
from
the
Northeast
and
Midwest
who
flexed
their
muscles
in
2005.
National
Journal's
annual
vote
ratings
show
that
small
bands
of
conservative
mavericks
were
also
moving
toward
the
center
of
the
House
and
the
Senate.
Among
those
GOP
renegades
were
Sununu
and
Sen.
Lindsey
Graham,
R-S.C.,
and
Reps.
Jeff
Flake,
R-Ariz.,
and
Walter
Jones,
R-N.C.
By
going
their
own
way
on
government
spending,
civil
liberties,
energy
policy,
the
war
in
Iraq,
and
other
issues,
these
self-styled
libertarians
occasionally
found
themselves
in
unexpected
alliances
with
more-conventional
GOP
moderates
--
such
as
Snowe
or
Rep.
Christopher
Shays,
R-Conn.
--
and
in
opposition
to
their
party's
standard-bearers.
"I
don't
worry
about
the
implications
of
voting
with
or
against
somebody
on
an
issue,"
said
Sununu,
who
calls
himself
"a
limited-government
Republican."
Flake, for his part, is a staunch conservative and a prominent member of the House Republican Study Committee. Back in 2003, he was one of 25 House Republicans who voted against the Medicare prescription drug benefits bill, a signature domestic victory of Bush's. In NJ's 2005 vote ratings, Flake is at the dead center of the House, with a composite conservative score of 50.
Asked about that rating, Flake said that the definition of "conservative" became "a proxy for how you voted with the administration. Those who stick with the leadership would go down with the ship, no matter what." But he added with a laugh: "If there were 30 Jeff Flakes in the House, it probably would be ungovernable."
Since 1981, NJ's annual vote ratings have defined where members of Congress have stood ideologically in each chamber. The ratings rank lawmakers on how they vote relative to each other on a conservative-to-liberal scale in both the Senate and the House. The scores are based on the members' votes in three areas: economic issues, social issues, and foreign policy. A computer-assisted calculation ranks members from one end of the ideological spectrum to the other based on key votes -- 70 in the Senate last year, and 107 in the House -- selected by NJ reporters and editors.
For example, the results show that on foreign issues, Sununu had a liberal score of 51 and a conservative score of 46. That means he was more liberal than 51 percent of other senators, more conservative than 46 percent, and tied with the rest. The scores do not mean that Sununu voted with liberals 51 percent of the time, or that he was 51 percent "correct" from a liberal perspective. (See "How The Vote Ratings Are Calculated" for more details.)
As the 2005 ratings demonstrate, the diversity among the centrists sometimes raises definitional challenges. Take, for example, the two House Republicans from Maryland: Reps. Roscoe Bartlett and Wayne Gilchrest. They ranked near each other and close to the center of the House: Bartlett's composite conservative score was 53, and Gilchrest's was 51. But a closer look at the issues on which they diverged from conventional conservative dogma shows why Gilchrest is a card-carrying member of the moderate Tuesday Group, while Bartlett is a comfortable fit with the conservative mavericks.
Both parted company with GOP regulars on House votes dealing with drilling for Alaska oil and for natural gas along the Outer Continental Shelf, higher automobile fuel-efficiency standards, and the use of medical marijuana. Gilchrest, however, took the "liberal" view on such issues as stem-cell research, parental notification for abortions, the display of the Ten Commandments at a local courthouse, and cuts in education and health care spending. Bartlett went his own way on asylum for refugees, immigration reform, trade with China, and PATRIOT Act renewal.
The Road Ahead
The revival of the Republican centrists has significant implications that extend well beyond current legislation. Going forward, centrists may continue to cause embarrassing and even debilitating setbacks for GOP leaders trying to unify their ranks behind a legislative agenda -- and a political message -- in the run-up to the November election.
In the Senate, there's little reason to believe that independent-minded members will make things much easier for Frist this year. Several GOP centrists -- Sens. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I., and Mike DeWine, R-Ohio -- face tough re-election fights in November, while a few others -- Hagel and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. -- are among the numerous senators mulling presidential bids in 2008.
When a party has a narrow Senate majority, as Republicans do now with their 55-44-1 edge, moderates will always enjoy considerable influence. The chamber's freewheeling rules allow individual senators to press their prerogatives, but require leaders to attain 60 votes to break filibusters to pass controversial legislation.
Until 2005, House Republican leaders had been far more effective in using their chamber's stricter rules to help maintain party discipline. Now the disciplinarian-in-chief, DeLay, is out as majority leader, leaving Hastert and new Majority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, in charge of this year's team. How GOP moderates will respond is an open question.
In the contest to replace DeLay this month, a majority of the most active Tuesday Group members had supported Blunt, not Boehner. But Kirk, the group's co-chairman, who backed Blunt, said he is not worried. Like Hastert and Blunt, Boehner is a Midwesterner "who sees a set of problems to be addressed," Kirk said.
Castle, an early Boehner supporter, said he expects the leadership team to continue to accommodate "a looser environment" in what some have called the "post-DeLay House." That change includes allowing more opportunities for Republicans to reach across the partisan aisle and for Democrats to offer amendments during House debate. "John is more open-minded on virtually everything," Castle said.
Likewise, Flake said he backed Boehner because he is "much more inclusive." He added, "We all recognize that there has been too much control in the leadership; members have been frustrated that so much has been done behind closed doors."
Looking down the road to November, Boehlert voices confidence that House Republicans will keep their majority, in part because of the moderates' "constructive" role. But Boehlert -- who will be forced to step down this year as Science Committee chairman because of the GOP's term limits, and who has voiced interest in leading the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee -- is uncertain whether he will seek re-election.
Several of the moderate House Republicans who face potentially tough races in swing districts contend that their independence puts them on the right track for electoral survival. They view their centrist credentials as badges of honor.
Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., who faces a competitive challenge from her state's Democratic attorney general, Patricia Madrid, said her independence serves her well. She recently attracted national headlines for raising questions about the Bush administration's domestic spying program. "People listen to [me] because I am sincere and I don't play games," Wilson said. With the polarization between the two parties, she added, "the smaller number of moderates stand out more.... I am always looking for ways to show that I am an independent thinker."
Jones, whose North Carolina district is home to large military facilities, including the Marine Corps's Camp Lejeune, made a big media splash last year when he joined Democrats in calling for the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq. He has been an outspoken maverick on other issues, including the 2003 Medicare bill. "I feel that I am a strong conservative in that I want to reduce the size of the federal government," he said.
Asked how he responds to pressures from Republican leaders, Jones cited the advice of his father, who served 26 years as a House Democrat: "Vote your conscience first, then your constituency, and your party comes third."
The author can be reached at rcohen@nationaljournal.com. Almanac of American Politics Research Associate Peter Bell assisted with tabulating the vote ratings.
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