FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 8, 2023
WASHINGTON - The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) and Women2Women have released a new national poll with nationally recognized research firm Echelon Insights. With nationwide polling of 1,026 likely Republican primary voters, the data reveals some surprising new insights about top primary voter concerns following the first GOP presidential debate. The poll was conducted with a sample and methodology that is in accordance with the RNC's criteria for debate-qualifying polls.
"Donald Trump is still polling well, and his absence at last month's debate seemed to do him no harm. Even with a clear second tier occupied by DeSantis and Ramaswamy, the only other candidates in double digits, this is a divided field that only advantages the man with the highest name ID in the world," notes Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP President and CEO. "In order for hopefuls to narrow this gap to Trump, they need to make serious headway among voters, promoting clear agendas that will actually address the problems like cost of living and mental health that voters really care about."
The poll was conducted August 31 - September 4, 2023. Some key findings include:
Donald Trump is still the clear frontrunner for the GOP, garnering a majority of support among respondents (59%). He performed most strongly among non-college educated individuals (64%), within the 18-39 age range (64%), among mothers (67%), and the most conservative voters (68%).
Voters are split on a runner-up candidate, with both Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis tying for second at 11%. The third tier of candidates includes Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, both rising to 6% following the August GOP presidential debate. The only other candidates to gain the support of at least 1% of respondents are Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Will Hurd, all at 1%.
Top voter issues include cost of living (27%), immigration (17%), jobs and the economy (16%), and political corruption (13%). Cost of living is a particularly acute issue for voters, with parents naming it as their top concern (40% of mothers and 32% of fathers).
Mental health is a critical topic of concern among voters, with an overwhelming majority of respondents considering both children / teen mental health (76%) and adult mental health (69%) to be a crisis. For adult mental health, drugs and addiction is seen as the top contributor to this crisis (37%), followed by lack of mental health resources (22%). For children / teen mental health, social media is the biggest cause for concern (32%).
Parents and younger generations are especially concerned about the mental health of children and teens, with the issue polling highest among the 18-39 age range (85%). Nearly every mother (93%) and two-thirds of fathers (68%) consider mental health to be a major problem among children and teens.
Nearly one-in-three (30%) of likely Republican primary voters believe that climate change is a crisis, with the sentiment strongest among younger voters aged 18-39 (38%). Regarding how to tackle climate change in Congress, 39% of respondents want their members to support policies producing more natural gas, 31% of respondents want to promote American innovation and develop more clean energy technology, 27% support an increase in clean nuclear energy production, and 22% support placing pressure on China to reduce its carbon pollution.
METHODOLOGY: This survey was fielded from August 31 - September 4, 2023, among a sample of N=1,026 likely 2024 Republican primary voters nationwide. Respondents were contacted through web sample providers and completed the survey online. The sample was matched to the L2 voter file to verify respondents' voter registration status, and was weighted to population benchmarks for likely Republican primary voters nationwide on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and Census region. Calculated the way it would be for a random sample and adjusted to incorporate the effect of weighting, the margin of sampling error is ± 3.8 percentage points. This survey was conducted by Echelon Insights on behalf of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
ABOUT RMSP: The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) encompasses a broad alliance of conservative, governing Republicans, including more than 85 sitting members in Congress. Led by President and CEO Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP is dedicated to working to enact common sense legislation that gets things done for the American people. RMSP's members run and win in the most highly contested swing districts in the country.