WASHINGTON D.C. – The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) and Women2Women released a new poll with nationally recognized research firm Cygnal. With statewide polling of 801 likely Republican primary voters, the data reveals new insights about top primary voter concerns following the first three GOP presidential debates and the Israel-Hamas War.
“With the first primary votes two months away, Republican voters want candidates with clear plans to tackle Bidenomics-fueled inflation and fixing our failed border policy are key to securing their vote,” said Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP President and CEO. “And while the Democratic Party tries to rein in its members who have been cheerleading Hamas, the GOP resolution in supporting Israel’s right to defend itself is backed up by the views of their voters.”
The poll was conducted November 9-10, 2023. Some key findings include:
The top two priorities for Republican presidential primary voters are inflation (41%) and illegal immigration (23%). Older voters (age 65 and over) are the most concerned about immigration (68%), while women are more concerned about inflation than men, with 44% of women ranking it as their most important issue versus 38% of men.
Donald Trump is still the clear frontrunner for the GOP, with 60% of respondents choosing to vote for him if the primary election were held today. There continues to be a steep drop off between Trump and the next tier of candidates, with a tight race for second with Ron DeSantis at 9%, and Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley tied at 8%.
Most of the presidential primary candidates are viewed favorably by primary voters, with the exception of Chris Christie (-24 net favorable).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed very favorably by Republican primary voters (+39 net favorable). However, women and voters under age 50 are more likely to view him unfavorably.
78% of primary voters say they are well-informed of the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 75% of voters say they have been following the events post October 7th at least “somewhat” closely, with voters over the age of 65 much more likely to be following “very” closely (87%).
Two-thirds of Republican primary voters have a positive opinion of Israel (66%). Women are slightly less likely than men to view Israel positively, at 60% versus 73%, respectively.
In light of the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack, 57% of primary voters say their opinion of Israel has not changed, with 27% noting that their opinion has grown stronger and 11% saying their opinion has weakened.
A 37% plurality of voters say the U.S. should provide weapons and financial aid to Israel. 24% of voters say that the U.S. should work to broker peace between Hamas and Israel, while another 12% say that the U.S. should do nothing at all. Over two-thirds (77%) of primary voters say the Israeli military incursion into Gaza is justified.
METHODOLOGY: This survey was fielded from November 9-10, 2023 among a sample of N=801 2024 likely Republican presidential primary voters. Respondents were contacted through telephone sample providers and completed through telephone interviews. The sample was matched to the L2 voter file to verify respondents’ voter registration status, and was weighted to population benchmarks for likely voters statewide on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and Census region. Calculated the way it would be for a random sample and adjusted to incorporate the effect of weighting, the margin of sampling error is ± 3.46 percentage points. This survey was conducted by Cygnal on behalf of the Republican Main Street Partnership.
ABOUT RMSP: The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) encompasses a broad alliance of conservative, governing Republicans, including more than 90 sitting members in Congress. Led by President and CEO Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP is dedicated to working to enact common sense legislation that gets things done for the American people. RMSP’s members run and win in the most highly contested swing districts in the country.